With the rankings coming out Tuesday night it gave us a pretty solid picture of the outcomes we could have based on how this weeks games shakeout. Let’s run through the various scenarios best case to worst case for the committee. We’ll start with all the match ups:
Pac 12 – #10 USC vs #12 Stanford
Big 12 – #3 Oklahoma vs #11 TCU
SEC – #2 Auburn vs #6 Georgia
ACC – #1 Clemson vs #7 Miami
Big 10 – #4 Wisconsin vs #8 Ohio State
One thing is certain among everyone and that is the ACC and SEC championship game winners are in so we are just talking about the last 2 spots to get in.
If Oklahoma beats TCU they are a lock to get in and if Wisconsin beats Ohio State they are as well. Sorry ‘Bama fans but you don’t have a shot in this scenario.
2 Loss Big Ten Champ
This scenario assumes Oklahoma and USC win but the real story is Ohio State versus Bama. Now keep in mind that Ohio State is the favorite in this game according to Vegas hovering around 6 points at the moment. If Ohio State beats Wisconsin it opens up the 2 loss conference champ against the 1 loss team that doesn’t play in their championship game debate. It also opens up the two teams from one conference argument. To me (and I may be in the minority) it’s Bama all day and its because I don’t want a 2 loss team in the playoff that lost to a 7-5 team by 31 and also already lost to a current playoff team by 15 at home (and it was worse than that). The argument people are making is that Bama hasn’t beaten anyone. Their marquee wins are against LSU and Mississippi State which took a hit last week after they lost to Ole Miss. Yes Ohio State had a good win against Penn State and blasted Michigan State but I don’t buy Michigan State like the rest of the country does and Penn State lost their only two hard games of the year which were to Ohio State and Michigan State. So all that being said I would take Bama over Ohio State in this scenario. Who knows if the committee would agree.
2 Loss Big 12 Champ
In this scenario Wisconsin wins but TCU pulls the upset against Oklahoma. Now it comes down to TCU, USC if they win and Bama. Again I am taking Bama all day. Yes TCU will have a solid win against Oklahoma State and now a conference championship game win against Oklahoma but their two blemishes are a loss to 7-5 Iowa State and then a beatdown from Oklahoma earlier in the season. USC’s only signature wins will both be against Stanford and their losses are a close one to Wazzu and then a 35 point shellacking at the hands of my Irish. Bama all day in this scenario.
Complete & Utter Carnage
In this scenario both Wisconsin and Oklahoma lose which opens up a major can of worms for the committee. Now you have two spots to pick from between Ohio State, Alabama, TCU and USC. If Georgia, Clemson or Miami lose I still don’t see them being candidates in this scenario as I can’t fathom a 2 loss team without a conference championship getting in. That would be absurd. This debacle would probably see Ohio State and Alabama sliding in the last two spots with TCU and USC on the outside looking in.
The scenario I am looking forward to seeing is Oklahoma beating TCU and then Ohio State taking down Wisconsin. The 2 loss Ohio State versus the 1 loss non conference champion Alabama will surely cause some great outrage no matter which team makes it in. That decision will really tell what the committee values. Should be an interesting weekend to say the least…..